Southern Africa’s economic growth now linked to path of Covid-19

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A HIGHER level of preparedness is urgently needed to prevent and mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on Southern Africa, says the African Development Bank in their new Southern African Regional Economic Outlook 2020.

Worst-case scenario planning says economic growth in Southern Africa will fall to -6.6 percent in 2020 before recovering to 2.2 percent in 2021. The negative growth, projected at -4.9 percent in the baseline case, is mainly driven by the deep recession in South Africa. This has been prompted by a fall in commodity prices, lockdown containment measures, weather-related events and longstanding structural issues related to public utilities.

Before Covid-19 struck South Africa’s economy was projected to recover from an estimated 0.7 percent growth in 2019 to 2.1 percent growth in 2020. The region’s largest economy, South Africa was projected to contribute around 60 percent of regional output in 2020.

Now, however, economic growth in a post-Covid-19 setting is forecast to decline and the impact on South Africa will trickle through the rest of the Southern African economies.

Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho and Namibia are seen as particularly vulnerable to South Africa’s impending negative economic growth, while Mozambique’s sale of gas and electricity could also be adversely affected. All southern African countries which rely on tourism will be adversely affected.

The immediate outlook, however, depends on the spread of new cases. South Africa is now the fifth-worst affected country in the world, with close to 400,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 infections.

The service sector, which would normally account for more than half of the GDP of Southern African economies, is already being negatively affected by the pandemic and attendant disruptions to transport, distribution, hotels and restaurants, entertainment, retail and trade.

Addressing poverty and inequality through economic growth

The Report does note that economic diversification, characterised by commodity-driven industrialisation, could help boost the region’s resilience during downturns.

The Southern African Regional Economic Outlook 2020 identified poverty and inequality as twin challenges affecting the region and called for policies aimed at making growth inclusive, broad-based and pro-poor if economic growth is ever to address these issues.

 

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